The Paradox of Tolerance: Religious Moderation Campaigns and the Moderation Illusion against Prejudiced Muslims in Indonesia

Abstract

Religious moderation has become a key state agenda in Indonesia to curb radicalism and promote tolerance. However, existing studies have not examined whether these campaigns affect intolerance among fellow Muslims stereotyped as “prejudiced Muslims,” namely those wearing the niqab, cropped trousers, long beards, or other attributes linked to radicalism. This study addresses that gap by analyzing whether exposure to religious-moderation campaigns reduces intolerance toward this marginalized in-group. Employing a triangulated mixed-method design, the research combined survey data from 118 respondents in Depok City with secondary datasets and an extensive literature review. Measurement instruments were validated using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA), and intolerance was assessed through classical and modern prejudice scales. Independent t-tests and multiple regression models were used to evaluate the effects of religious moderation and campaign exposure. The findings show no significant difference in intolerance levels between individuals exposed to religious-moderation campaigns and those not exposed (p > 0.05). Religious moderation also does not significantly predict lower prejudice toward prejudiced Muslims, even after controlling for age, gender, and education. Interestingly, respondents demonstrating high tolerance toward cultural diversity, other religions, and national values concurrently exhibit intolerance toward prejudiced Muslims, suggesting the presence of domain-specific tolerance. These findings reflect a moderation illusion, where moderation campaigns appear rhetorically promising but do not produce fundamental changes in intolerance. The study provides empirical evidence for debates on religious moderation, demonstrating its limited impact on intra-religious intolerance and highlighting the need for interventions that address the ideological, intellectual, and experiential dimensions of religiosity.